Trying to predict the future is a tricky business, and nobody has an accurate crystal ball.
But some people still think they know what's coming next and take pleasure in confidently sharing their decrees. It's extra satisfying when those folks are dead wrong.
Here are 20 people from distant and recent history, some otherwise very intelligent, who were dead wrong in their predictions for the future.
1
Lord William Thomson Kelvin
The namesake of the Kelvin temperature scale, Kelvin was completely sceptical of X-Rays, and in the late 1800s, thought they would eventually be proven a scam. They are now one of medicine’s most powerful tools. He also believed it impossible that “heavier than air” flying machines could exist.
2
Ken Olsen
Despite being the founder of Digital Equipment Corporation, Ken Olsen stated that "There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home" in 1977.
3
Robert Metcalfe
Robert Metcalfe might have been the co-creator of Ethernet, but he had little faith in the internet itself. He wrote a 1996 InfoWorld article called "From the Ether: Predicting the Internet's Catastrophic Collapse and Ghost Sites Galore in 1996."
In it, he stated, “I predict the Internet, which only just recently got this section here in InfoWorld, will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse."
4
Napoleon
While undoubtedly a talented sailor, Napoleon was doubtful boats would ever use a different method of propulsion. “You would make a ship sail against the winds and currents by lighting a bonfire under her decks? I have no time for such nonsense.”
5
T. Craven
In 1961, FCC Commissioner T. Craven was dead wrong in his prediction for the future of communication. "There is practically no chance communications space satellites will be used to provide better telephone, telegraph, television, or radio service inside the United States."
6
John Elfreth Watkins
In a piece for the Ladies' Home Journal in 1900, John Elfreth Watkins predicted that the world would transition to phonetic spelling, completely eliminating C, X, and Q as letters. He also thought Russian would become the world’s second most spoken language. I guess a different Cold War outcome could have helped the second idea.
7
Harold Camping
Camping is an Evangelist, who has publicly predicted the end of the world at least 12 times. Inexplicably, he maintained a radio following until his death in 2013. So far as I know, the Earth is still here.
8
Darryl F. Zanuck
Darryl F. Zanuck was a co-founder of 20th Century Fox, and a powerful movie executive. But despite his knowledge of the big screen, he was doubtful of the little one. He is quoted as saying, “Television won't be able to hold on to any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night.”
9
George Wald
If you think you’re pessimistic about climate change, meet George Wald. In 1970, the Harvard biologist claimed that mankind had 15 to 30 years left at most.
10
Time
In 1965, Time predicted that most jobs would eventually be done by computers, thus allowing 90% of the population to live via subsidies. "With government benefits, even non-working families will have, by one estimate, an annual income of $30,000 to $40,000.” Of course, everyone knows that once a position becomes automated, companies just lay off those employees.
11
Alex Lewyt
I get being bullish about your own tech, but in 1955, President of the Lewyt Vacuum Cleaner Company Alex Lewyt stated that “Nuclear powered vacuum cleaners will probably be a reality within 10 years.” Imagine, Chernobyl; living room rug edition.
12
Eric Anderson
Predictions with short timelines are easy to look back on. In 2010, Eric Anderson of Space Adventures claimed that, "By 2020 you'll have seen private citizens circumnavigate the moon." We might be on our way, but we’re still a few decades off.
13
Dr. Lowry McDaniel
In 1955, Dr Lowry McDaniel predicted that the common cold would be completely eradicated by 2000. I would like to have a word with him about how I felt last week.
14
Johannes Stöffler
In 1524, this highly regarded German mathematician and astrologer noted that all known planets would soon be aligned under the Pices constellation. Since Pices is a water sign, he predicted that a world ending flood was on its way. Many noblemen believed him, and one even built an ark.
15
Bernard Strehler
A biologist and author of the book Time, Cells, And Aging, Strehler believed that humans were well on their way to living 150 years or more, and that it would happen very soon. He presented his findings to the Federation of American Societies for Experimental Biology.
16
Paul Ehrlich
This American biologist claimed in a 1970 issue of Mademoiselle, that “The death rate will increase until at least 100-200 million people per year will be starving to death during the next ten years.” While we might be doomed, that tipping point is still in our future.
17
Hon-Ming Chen
Like many other cult leaders, Hon-Ming Chen made some dubious claims in the 1980s. The most outlandish involved God appearing across American television sets, before appearing in Chen’s exact form. Shockingly, when this didn’t happen, he still retained credibility with his followers.
18
Waldemar Kaempffert
New York Times science editor Waldemar Kaempffert predicted that humans would eventually change how they consumed food, claiming that "even soup and milk" would come in frozen bricks, and "rayon underwear" would be made into sweets.
19
Peter Gunter
This North Texas State University biology professor claimed that, “By the year 2000, thirty years from now, the entire world, with the exception of Western Europe, North America, and Australia, will be in famine.” That hasn’t quite happened.
20
Joanna Southcott
Thanks to “voices in her head,” Southcott was able to successfully predict a British famine in 1799. That earned her a sizeable following, but when she claimed in 1813 that she would soon give birth to the second coming of Christ at the age of 64, she quickly passed away.
